Sun-Mon Snow Event (Nov 10-11th) Update #3

​(10:30AM - 11/9/19) A snow event across at least portions of the state continues to look increasingly likely, Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

Unfortunately for this update, model guidance continues to vary in a significant degree... At this point there are two camps within guidance, American models having a widespread very light snow event of a dusting to about 1-2" for a good portion of the state, with foreign model guidance having widespread lighter snows across the state and a heavier swath of 2-5" across portions of Northern Illinois. Both camps of guidance have held serve with their solutions the past several cycles, which casts doubt on a final forecast, especially given the event is only 1 day away at this point. Given all of this, will go with a forecast that is between both camps of guidance, though will side a bit more towards foreign guidance, given previous history in situations like this.

​With that said, expect an area of snow to push into portions of Northern Illinois Sunday afternoon and evening. This area of snow will continue across Northern Illinois into Monday morning. Snow will also spread across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, early Monday morning through Monday afternoon. At this point it looks likely that much of the state will see snowfall accumulations of a dusting for most areas, to upwards of 1-2". A heavier swath of accumulations of 2-4" will be possible for portions of Northern Illinois. Additionally, lake effect and lake enhancement will be possible for areas of Northeast Illinois near Lake Michigan. Note, given the model discrepancies at this time, this is a low confidence forecast.

Following the snow event, record cold temperatures continue to look likely across the state, for early in the week. A snow cover for some areas will only help ensure that the cold temps will be likely.

Stay tuned for additional future updates on the potential snow event and likely record cold. Below is the TAM snowfall forecast for this event.

​JP

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