Sun-Thur, April 28-May 2nd Heavy Rain/Flood Threat Update #2

(10:30PM - 4/28/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.

The only significant change this update is to move the corridor of higher flood threat northward, as model guidance from this afternoon and evening has shifted the axis of heaviest rainfall amounts to the north.

Several periods of rain and t'storms will be likely across the state from tonight through Thursday night, as several disturbances push across the region. The most widespread and organized periods of rain and t'storms during this period will be tonight into Monday, Monday night into Wednesday and then again on Thursday. It looks likely that much of the state will receive in excess of 1" of rain during the period, with a large corridor of rainfall totals in excess of 2" likely across much of Northern and Central Illinois. Within this axis, an area of 2-5" rainfall totals are likely into portions of Northern and Western Illinois. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, widespread minor to moderate flood potential is likely...with a corridor of higher flood threat possible.

Below is our updated TAM flood forecast.

JP

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