Sun-Thur, May 5-9th Heavy Rain/Flood Threat Update #2

(2:00PM - 5/6/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.

After a wet week with widespread high rainfall totals and flooding for the state last week, another wet period is on the way for this upcoming week. A lingering frontal boundary with several disturbances moving through the region will bring several periods of rain and t'storms to much of the state from now through Thursday. During this period, there will be a some rounds of more organized activity.

Things have kicked off Sunday evening into this afternoon, with periods of rain and isolated t'storms having pushed across portions of Northern Illinois. Additional periods of rain and isolated t'storms will be likely across portions of Northern and Central Illinois through early Tuesday morning.

​The second more organized round of rain and t'storms will be across Central and Southern Illinois Tuesday morning into Tuesday night. The third round will affect much of the state, from Wednesday morning into Thursday evening. This final round will be the most widespread, organized and heaviest during this period. 

Final rainfall totals will likely end up around or in excess of 1" across a decent portion of the state during this period, with areas of higher rainfall totals likely. It is looking more likely as time goes on that areas of 1-3" rainfall totals may be possible across portions of Northwest Illinois, which will promote more widespread minor to moderate flooding potential across this area. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, widespread minor flood potential is likely.

Below is our updated TAM flood forecast.

JP

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