Thur, April 11th Severe Weather Threat Update #2

(12:30PM - 4/11/19) Midday update on the low end severe weather threat across the state today into tonight...

Areas of scattered of rain and t'storms have been ongoing across portions of Northern Illinois this morning. Additionally, a warm front is rapidly pushing northward across Central Illinois, and will push northward across Northern Illinois later this afternoon and evening. South of this warm front, a high shear/low CAPE environment will exist. Instability will be low, moisture will be okay and shear will be great.

A broken line of showers and t'storms is expected to develop across Eastern Iowa, Western Illinois and Northwest Missouri by mid-afternoon or so, along an advancing cold front. This activity will quickly sweep across much of the state during the late afternoon into tonight. Given the aforementioned expected environment, an isolated strong to severe t'storm is likely across the state. This best chance for this will exist across Northern Illinois, where slightly better directional shear will likely exist in the vicinity of the warm front and triple point. All modes of severe weather are possible, including an isolated tornado...especially in the vicinity of the warm from across Northern Illinois.

​Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecast for this event.

JP

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