Thur, Aug 29th Severe T'Storm Threat Update #2

(12:30PM - 8/29/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state, this afternoon into night.

8/29/19 - This Afternoon-Tonight's Forecast...
A storm system and associated cold front is sweeping across the region today. Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop along and ahead of this front this afternoon across portions of Wisconsin, Iowa and Northern Illinois. This activity will then sweep southeastward, across portions of Northern and Central Illinois the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. An environment in place featuring low instability, moderate moisture and moderate shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across portions of Northeast and Western Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A few changes this update... Model guidance from last night was in full agreement in showing the potential for widespread showers and t'storms, with at least widely scattered severe t'storm potential. However, model guidance from this morning did a complete reversal, showing a mostly dry frontal passage now...and only an isolated chance for showers/t'storms and an isolated severe t'storm potential. Observations from this morning and early afternoon support the new solution, thus have significantly cut back on severe probabilities for Northern and Central Illinois. Many locations may end up seeing a dry frontal passage, with Western and far Northeast having the best chance for showers, t'storms and an isolated severe t'storm.

Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this afternoon-tonight.

​JP

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