Thur-Fri, March 10-11th Snow Event Update #3

(11:30AM - Thursday 3/10/22) A lead wave and main storm system will continue to impact the region and state, through Friday night. During this period, a swath of accumulating snow is expected across the region and state.

Summary...
Even as this even gets underway, there continues to be some disagreement within model guidance. Taking into account all available information, including real time observations, we has made some adjustments to our forecast. We have increased snowfall amounts in West-Central Illinois, as support has grown for an axis of higher snowfall totals in this corridor. Also, we have lowers snowfall totals a bit across the southern half of the state, as there growing support that there will be a minimum in snowfall totals between the lead wave and main storm system moving through the region.

​An initial lead wave will move from the Plains this morning, through the Ohio Valley tonight, and then into the Great Lakes Friday morning as it weakens. A round of snow will move through the region and across the state with this lead wave, this morning though Friday morning. Furthermore, a main storm system will develop across the Southern Mississippi Valley on Friday, and will then track into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday morning. This storm system will bring a renewed push of snow across the region and state, Friday morning through Friday night.

​​Forecast...
This Morning - Friday Morning, March 10-11th ~ Lead Wave Event:
​An lead wave will move from the Plains this morning, through the Ohio Valley tonight, and then into the Great Lakes Friday morning as it weakens. This lead wave will be accompanied by an area of snow traveling along with it, affecting the region and portions of the state. Snow has slowly been moving into portions of Northern and Central Illinois this morning. Snow is expected to spread across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, this afternoon through tonight, before ending Friday morning. Snow will vary in intensity during this period, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour at times.

Friday Morning - Friday Night, March 11th ~ Main Storm System Event:
​As the main storm system moves through the region, an associated renewed push of snow will develop and move across the region and portions of the state, Friday morning through Friday night. This renewed push of snow will spread into portions of Central and Southern Illinois Friday morning, continuing into Friday evening, before ending Friday night. Snow will vary in intensity during this time, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour possible at times. 

​Below is the snowfall forecast for this two part event.

​Impacts...
-Widespread snow accumulation of 1-3" to 2-5" across the heart of the state, with snowfall totals tapering to a dusting to 1" north and south of this main axis.
-Some travel impacts are possible across much of the state.

JP