Thur, May 6th Severe T'Storm Risk Update #1

(8:30PM - 5/5/21) A fast moving disturbance will move through the region on Thursday, bringing a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late Thursday morning through early  Thursday evening.

Summary...
A disturbance will quickly push across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Thursday. This disturbance will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late Thursday morning through early  Thursday evening. Model guidance continues to be in overall good agreement regarding this potential, with no significant changes needed with this update.

​Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Central and Southern Illinois and Missouri, mid Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. This activity is then expected to quickly sweep southeastward across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday afternoon into early evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 49-55, lapse rates of 7.5-9C, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. Hail is the main threat, though an isolated occurrence of damaging winds is possible.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP