Thur, May 6th Severe T'Storm Risk Update #2

(11:00AM - 5/6/21) A fast moving disturbance pushing through the region today will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late this morning through early  this evening.

Summary...
A disturbance will quickly push across the Midwest and Ohio Valley today. This disturbance will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late this morning through early this evening. Model guidance continues to be in overall good agreement regarding this potential with real time observations supporting, thus no significant changes were needed with this update.

Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms have developed this morning across portions of Central and Southwestern Illinois and Missouri. This activity is expected to quickly sweep southeastward across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, late this morning through early this evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 49-55, lapse rates of 8.5-9C, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, from late this morning through early this evening. Hail is the main threat, though an isolated occurrence of damaging winds is possible.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP