Thur-Sun, May 16-19th Severe Weather Threat Update #3

(11:55PM - 5/16/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.

Tonight...
Widespread showers and t'storms have been ongoing since this evening across a good portion of Northern Illinois. Several of these storms have been severe, with hail having been the most common threat. Periods of showers and t'storms will continue overnight across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois, with a continued isolated to scattered severe t'storm threat at times given a favorable environment, though the threat will gradually diminish with time overnight. Hail and winds will be the main threats.

Friday morning through night...
It looks likely that there will be several periods of showers and t'storms across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois from Friday morning through Friday evening. Most of this activity will likely be north of a warm front in place across the region, which will extend across Central Illinois. With some elevated instability in place, an isolated strong to severe t'storm is possible. Hail would be the main threat should any storm reach those levels.

Saturday morning through night...
Weakening areas of showers and scattered t'storms will be possible across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois late Saturday morning into the afternoon. It looks plausible at this time that some clearing and destabilization will occur between and in the wake of said earlier activity, which would allow regeneration or new development of scattered showers and t'storms during the afternoon across the aforementioned areas and in adjacent states to the west. This activity will then also push northeast across much of the state, though in scattered fashion, into Saturday evening and night. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat for some areas. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

A severe threat may also continue into Sunday for portions of the state, with this being further discussed in future updates.

​Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.

​JP

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