Thur-Sun, May 16-19th Severe Weather Threat Update #5

(1:00AM - 5/18/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.

Multiple rounds of severe t'storms were seen across much of Northern and Eastern Illinois Thursday morning through night. Hail was the most common and widespread occurrence, though isolated high/damaging winds were seen as well.

​Friday morning through evening, periods of rain and isolated t'storms pushed across much of Northern Illinois. No severe weather occurred.

​Saturday morning through night...
Weakening areas of showers and scattered t'storms will be possible across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois mid Saturday morning into the afternoon. It looks likely that some clearing and destabilization will occur between and in the wake of said earlier activity, which would allow regeneration or new development of scattered showers and t'storms during the afternoon across the aforementioned areas and in adjacent states to the west. This activity will then push northeast across much of the state, though in scattered fashion, into Saturday evening and night. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent to good moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat for some areas. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more clearing and destabilization occur, leading to a better environment, an upgrade in severe probabilities may be needed for some areas in a later update.

Sunday morning through night...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be ongoing across a good portion of the state Sunday morning. In the wake of this activity, clearing and destabilization should occur ahead of a cold front expected to sweep across the state during the afternoon. New development of scattered showers and t'storm will likely occur along this front, front Northern Illinois down into Southern Illinois. This activity will push northeast across the state, exiting during the evening. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, decent to good moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more clearing and destabilization occur, leading to a better environment, or confidence grow with the aforementioned scenario, an upgrade in severe probabilities may be needed for some areas in a later update.

​Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.

​JP

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