ThUr-Sun, May 16-19th Severe Weather Threat Update #5

(10:00AM - 5/18/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.

Multiple rounds of severe t'storms were seen across much of Northern and Eastern Illinois Thursday morning through night. Hail was the most common and widespread occurrence, though isolated high/damaging winds were seen as well.

​Friday morning through evening, periods of rain and isolated t'storms pushed across much of Northern Illinois. No severe weather occurred.

This morning through tonight...
Areas of scattered showers and t'storms are currently pushing into Northwest and Western Illinois. This activity will continue to spread across portions of Northern and Central Illinois through the rest of the morning, and into the afternoon. It looks likely that clearing and destabilization will occur ahead of and in the wake of said earlier activity, which would allow regeneration or new development of scattered showers and t'storms during the afternoon across the aforementioned areas and in adjacent states to the west. This activity will then push northeast across much of the state, though in scattered fashion, into this evening and night. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent to good moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat for most of the state, with a slightly better chance of a widely scattered severe t’storm threat across Western Illinois areas. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more clearing and destabilization occur, leading to a better environment, an upgrade or expansion in severe probabilities may be needed for some areas in a later update.

Sunday morning through night...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be ongoing across a good portion of the state Sunday morning. In the wake of this activity, clearing and destabilization should occur ahead of a cold front expected to sweep across the state during the afternoon. New development of isolated to scattered showers and t'storm will likely occur along this front, from Northern down into Southern Illinois. This activity will push northeast across the state, exiting during the evening. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, decent to good moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more clearing and destabilization occur, leading to a better environment, or confidence grow with the aforementioned scenario, an upgrade in severe probabilities may be needed for some areas in a later update.

​Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.

JP

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