Thur-Sun, May 16-19th Severe Weather Threat Update #6

(9:30PM - 5/18/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.

Multiple rounds of severe t'storms were seen across much of Northern and Eastern Illinois Thursday morning through night. Hail was the most common and widespread occurrence, though isolated high/damaging winds were seen as well.

​Friday morning through evening, periods of rain and isolated t'storms pushed across much of Northern Illinois. No severe weather occurred.

Tonight...
Areas of rain and isolated to scattered t’storm will push across much of the state tonight. An isolated strong to several t’storm threat is possible with some of this activity. Hail and wind will be the main threats should any t’storm reach those levels.

Sunday morning through night...
Areas of showers and isolated t'storms will be ongoing across portions of the state Sunday morning. In the wake of this activity, some clearing and destabilization may occur in the wake of this activity, ahead of a cold front expected to sweep across the state during the afternoon. New development of isolated to scattered showers and t'storm will likely occur along this front, from Northern down into Southern Illinois. This activity will push northeast across the state, exiting during the evening. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent to good moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more clearing and destabilization occur, leading to a better environment, an upgrade in severe probabilities may be needed for some areas in a later update.

​Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.

JP

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