Tropical Storm Cristobal To Bring High Winds & Tornado Potential Tue-Wed, June 9-10th

(5:00PM - 6/6/20) The remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal are expected to move through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing the potential for heavy rain, flooding, high winds and severe t'storms to the region.

​Overview...
Since 1886, there have only been 15 instances of documented tropical cyclone remnants having directly affected Illinois, which makes what will occur this week fairly unusual and rare. The most recent occurrences were Tropical Storm Alberto in May 2018 and Hurricane Isaac in Aug/Sept 2012. The most notable and somewhat recent occurrence was Hurricane Ike in Sept 2008, which brought upwards of 6-12" of rain and record flooding to portions of the state, as well as widespread high/destructive winds to Indiana and Ohio. Tropical Storm Cristobal will be the storm 16th added to the list this week.

Synopsis...
We are just over 2 days out from the first impacts of what will be the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal beginning to affect the state. At this point there is a high amount of agreement among model guidance for this event. At this time, the track of the the remnant tropical storm looks to move northward from the Gulf Coast, then up through Missouri, Iowa and Wisconsin.

Now for the good news and bad news... The good news is that with a track of the system just to the west of the state, the heaviest rainfall and flood potential will likely end up just west of the state as well, near and just west of the track of the system...which is very common with remnant tropical cyclones. The bad news is that this puts the state in the eastern quad of the system, which is a prone area for high winds and severe/tornado potential. At this time there it looks as though there will be two periods of high wind potential across the state...The first from Tuesday morning into Tuesday night, and the second Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. Wind gusts during both periods will quite possibly will be upwards of 45-65MPH, with higher gusts possible. Additionally, with a supportive environment in place, there will be a severe t'storm/tornado threat across the state Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Additional updates with more in-depth information will be provided over the coming days. 

JP

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