(11:15AM - 4/30/19) Midday update regarding the severe weather threat across portions of the state from now into tonight...
Currently a complex of rain and t'storms is pushing into Western Illinois. Some of this activity has been strong, with sub-severe hail reported. It is likely that this complex will continue to push east-northeast, eventually across much of Central Illinois during this afternoon and evening. As the environment ahead of this complex improves, some storms may become severe, with wind and hail being the main threats.
Further south, a warm front is currently located along I-64 in Southern Illinois. This warm front has been slowly pushing northward, and will continue to through the day, making it to around and north of I-70 this afternoon. The environment near and south of this warm front will feature good instability, good moisture and good shear. It is looking likely that isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop across portions of Central and Southern Illinois this afternoon, in the vicinity of the warm front. This activity will likely post a severe threat, with all modes of severe weather possible, including a few tornadoes.
Finally, other complexes of rain and t'storms that develop across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri this afternoon will likely push into and across portions of Southern Illinois this evening into tonight, with some severe threat being possible. Wind and hail would be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecast for this event.
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