Tue-Fri, June 25-28th Severe T'storm Threat Update #5

(11:30AM - 6/26/19) Several smaller disturbances moving through the region will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state through Friday.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night Recap...
Scattered showers and t'storms developed and pushed across portions of Northern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. Some of these t'storms were severe, with wind and hail being the main threats that occurred. Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, a complex of rain and t'storms that developed across Southern Iowa pushed across Western and Central Illinois. Severe t'storms were widespread with this activity across Western Illinois, waning with time across Central Illinois. Wind and hail were the main threats that occurred with this activity.

Wednesday-Wednesday Night...
A few weakening complex's of rain and t'storms and associated disturbances, that originated from High Plains activity last night, have been pushing eastward across Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri this morning. Ahead of the disturbances moving in, an environment characterized by high instability, high moisture and low shear will be in place across the state today. Regeneration and new development of showers and t'storms is expected to occur across a decent portion of the state this afternoon, as the disturbances move in from the west. This activity will then continue into tonight, diminishing with time. Isolated severe t'storms are likely across a decent portion of the state, with wind and hail being the main threats.

​Thursday-Thursday Night...
Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms may be ongoing Thursday morning, across Southern Illinois. This activity will be associated with a left over disturbance that will be caught under the building ridge of high pressure in the region. Continued scattered showers and t'storms will be possible through the day on Thursday and into Thursday night across Southern Illinois, associated with this lingering disturbance. An environment characterized by moderate instability, moderate moisture and low shear will be in place. This will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat across Southern Illinois, with wind and hail being the main threats. Of greater focus will be further north, where a complex of rain and t'storms may push into portions of Northern Illinois Thursday afternoon or evening, lasting into Thursday night. Some of this activity could potentially affect portions of Central Illinois Thursday night as well. An environment characterized by high instability, high moisture and low shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm potential for portions of Northern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats. An upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities may be needed in future updates.

A severe t'storm threat will likely continue into at least Friday for portions of the state. This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches.

Below is the updated TAM severe t’storm forecast for today/tonight and Thursday/Thursday night.

​JP

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