Tue-Fri, June 25-28th Severe T'Storm Threat Update #7

(12:30PM - 6/27/19) Several smaller disturbances moving through the region will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state through Friday.

Tuesday Morning-Night Recap...
Scattered showers and t'storms developed and pushed across portions of Northern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. Some of these t'storms were severe, with wind and hail being the main threats that occurred. Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, a complex of rain and t'storms that developed across Southern Iowa pushed across Western and Central Illinois. Severe t'storms were widespread with this activity across Western Illinois, waning with time across Central Illinois. Wind and hail were the main threats that occurred with this activity.

Wednesday Morning-Night Recap...
Scattered showers and t'storms developed across Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday afternoon. This activity grew upscale into a large complex, which pushed across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois from the afternoon into night. Isolated to widely scattered severe t'storms occurred with this activity, with wind and hail being the threats that occurred. Further north, scattered showers and t'storms developed across portions of Northern Illinois late in the afternoon and evening. This activity spread across portions of Northern Illinois into the night. Isolated to widely scattered t'storms occurred with this activity, with wind and hail being the threats that occurred.

This afternoon-tonight...
Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will be possible this afternoon and evening across Southern Illinois. This activity is associated with a left over disturbance that is caught under the building ridge of high pressure in the region. An environment characterized by low instability, moderate moisture and low shear will be in place. This will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat across Southern Illinois, with wind and hail being the main threats. Of greater focus is further north, where a large complex of rain and t'storms is currently pushing across Minnesota and Iowa. This complex is expected to push east-southeastward into portions of Northern Illinois later this afternoon, continuing into tonight. An environment characterized by high instability, high moisture and low shear will be in place. This will help support up to a scattered severe t'storm threat for portions of Northern Illinois, with wind and hail will be the main threats. Should a widespread/significant damaging wind threat look increasingly likely based on observations, the potential exists for a further upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities in future updates.

Friday Morning-Friday Night...
A weakening complex of rain and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Northern Illinois Friday morning. In the wake of this potential early day activity, scattered showers and t'storms will likely develop during the afternoon across portions of Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northern and Western Illinois. This activity will slowly push across portions of Northern and Central Illinois into Friday night. An environment characterized by high instability, high moisture and low shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm potential for portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats. 

Below is the updated TAM severe t’storm forecast for today/tonight and Friday/Friday night.

​JP

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