Tue-Fri, June 25-28th Severe T'storm Threat Update #9

(11:45AM - 6/28/19) Several smaller disturbances moving through the region will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state through tonight.

Tuesday Morning-Night Recap...
Scattered showers and t'storms developed and pushed across portions of Northern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. Some of these t'storms were severe, with wind and hail being the main threats that occurred. Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, a complex of rain and t'storms that developed across Southern Iowa pushed across Western and Central Illinois. Severe t'storms were widespread with this activity across Western Illinois, waning with time across Central Illinois. Wind and hail were the main threats that occurred with this activity.

Wednesday Morning-Night Recap...
Scattered showers and t'storms developed across Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday afternoon. This activity grew upscale into a large complex, which pushed across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois from the afternoon into night. Isolated to widely scattered severe t'storms occurred with this activity, with wind and hail being the threats that occurred. Further north, scattered showers and t'storms developed across portions of Northern Illinois late in the afternoon and evening. This activity spread across portions of Northern Illinois into the night. Isolated to widely scattered t'storms occurred with this activity, with wind and hail being the threats that occurred.

Thursday Morning-Thursday Night...
The southern end of a complex of rain and t'storms pushed across portions of Northern Illinois Thursday afternoon and evening. A few isolated t'storms were severe, with wind and hail being the main threats that occurred.

This Afternoon-Tonight...
A complex of rain and t'storms that develop across Minnesota and Wisconsin last night, held together and moved into Northern Illinois this morning. This activity has been weakening, but is still producing isolated to scattered showers and t'storms across portions of Northern Illinois into early this afternoon. The far western end of this complex has held together and re-strengthened across Southeast Iowa. This complex is expected to push southward, moving across portions of Western Illinois and Missouri this afternoon...and possibly brushing the St. Louis area and Southwest Illinois this evening, if it maintains. An environment characterized by high instability, high moisture and low shear will be in place ahead of this complex. This will help support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm potential for portions of Western and Southwest Illinois, with wind and hail will be the main threats. An isolated shower or t'storm may be possible across portions of Northern and Central Illinois this afternoon and evening, in the vicinity of an outflow boundary left over from the early day activity.

Below is the updated TAM severe t’storm forecast for this afternoon-tonight.

​JP

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