Tue, Nov 10th Severe T'Storm Threat Update #1

(8:15PM - 11/9/20) A storm system moving through the region on Tuesday will bring a low end threat for severe t'storms to much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois.

Summary...
Previous forecast is on track, no significant changes needed...

A few earlier day scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be possible Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. However, the main focus will come a bit later...As a broken line of showers and t'storms is expect to develop along an advancing cold front, across Eastern Iowa, Missouri and Western Illinois Tuesday afternoon. This line is expected to rapidly push northeastward across much of the state, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. A level 1 (minimal) severe t'storm threat is expected to exist with this activity, across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois. A strengthening storm system will be moving through the region, accompanied by a strong 110KT jet streak. This will be juxtaposed to reservoir of dew points in the low 60's, great shear, and great forcing...The only negating factor is limited insatiability, less than 1000J/KG. This high shear/low instability environment will be favorable for an isolated severe t'storm threat...with damaging winds, small hail and an isolated tornado possible should any t'storm become severe.

​Below is the severe t'storm forecast for Tuesday morning - Tuesday night.

JP