Tue-Thur, April 27-29th Severe T'Storm Risk Update #2

(10:15AM - 4/28/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Thursday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to Central and Southern Illinois through Thursday morning.

Summary...
With a trough in place across the Western US, multiple disturbances have been and will continue to eject out into the Central US, moving through the region through Thursday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to Central and Southern Illinois through Thursday morning. Model guidance and real time observations continue to support the going forecast, with little change needed.

Forecast...
Today/Tonight/Thursday Morning...
A frontal boundary is expected to slowly push southward across the state today through Thursday morning, with multiple disturbances expected to move through region. Several waves of showers and t'storms are expected to move across Central and Southern Illinois, this morning through Thursday morning. An environment featuring instability of 500-2,000J/KG, dew points of 64-71, good forcing and good shear will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) to widely scattered (level 2) severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois, this morning through Thursday morning. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

​Summary...
Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms moved across much of the state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. While there had been a risk for an isolated severe t'storm across Northern and Central Illinois, so severe t'storms occurred.

JP