Tue-Thur, May 21-23rd Severe Weather Threat Update #4

(10:30PM - 5/21/19) A main storm system pushing across the region will bring the chance for severe t’storms to portions of the state through Thursday.

Tonight...
A large area of rain and isolated to scattered t’storms have been ongoing across much of the state this evening and early tonight. This activity will continue to sweep northeastward across the state through tonight. A continued isolated strong to severe t’storm threat will continue for a bit longer across portions of Eastern and Southern Illinois, though this threat will continue to wane with time. All modes of severe weather are possible with any storm that reaches severe limits.

Wednesday afternoon into night...
A front is expected to push southeastward across the state Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Development of scattered showers and t’storms is likely in the vicinity of this front during the afternoon, across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri...potentially up into Iowa and Western Illinois as well. This activity will then push northeastward across a good portion of the state, though in scattered fashion, Wednesday evening through Wednesday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture and average shear will be in place. This environment will help support an isolated strong to severe t’storm threat across a good portion of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats.

Thursday afternoon into night...
An isolated shower or t’storm may be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Thursday morning...left over remnants of activity from Wednesday night. The aforementioned front pushing through on Wednesday will stall across Southern Illinois on Thursday, and eventually begin to lift back north was a warm front. Isolated to scattered showers and t’storms will develop in the vicinity of this front across portions of Central and Southern Illinois during the afternoon and evening, then continuing into Thursday night. An environment in place featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture and average shear will be in place. This environment will help support an isolated strong to severe t’storm threat across a good portion of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats.

JP

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