Tue-Thur, May 21-23rd Severe Weather Threat Update #6

(4:15PM - 5/22/19) *This update is only to amend the forecast for today into tonight. We will be slightly expanding and raising severe t’storm probabilities for portions of the state, based on observations and model guidance.

This afternoon into tonight...
A front is expected to push southeastward across the state this evening into tonight. Development of scattered showers and t’storms has occurred in the vicinity of this front, across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri, Southeast Iowa and Western Illinois. This activity is expected to push northeastward across a good portion of the state, this evening through tonight. An environment in place featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture and great shear will be in place. This environment will help support an isolated to scattered severe t’storm threat across a large portion of the state, with a better chance of more numerous severe t’storms near Western Illinois and back into Missouri. Wind and hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Previous update....
A main storm system pushing across the region will bring the chance for severe t’storms to portions of the state through Thursday.

On Tuesday, a round of rain and isolated t’storms pushed across portions of the state during the morning. A second round of rain and t’storms pushed across much of the state during the afternoon into night. Scattered severe t’storms occurred across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. Wind and hail were the common occurrence, but a few isolated tornadoes also occurred.

​Thursday afternoon into night...
An isolated shower or t’storm may be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Thursday morning...left over remnants of activity from Wednesday night. The aforementioned front pushing through on Wednesday will stall across Southern Illinois on Thursday, and eventually begin to lift back north was a warm front. Isolated to scattered showers and t’storms will develop in the vicinity of this front across portions of Central and Southern Illinois during the afternoon and evening, then continuing into Thursday night. An environment in place featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture and average shear will be in place. This environment will help support an isolated strong to severe t’storm threat across a good portion of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats.

Below are the updated TAM severe weather forecasts for each upcoming day of this multi-day event.

JP

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