Tue-Wed, Feb. 19-20th Snow/Ice Event Update #5

(8:15PM - 2/19/19) Evening update on the snow/ice event that will affect the state from this evening into Wednesday evening...

Model guidance this afternoon and evening has come in slightly drier, with observations this evening supporting that. Thus, we will be slightly cutting snow totals across the state a bit, with minor snow and ice accumulations expected for many areas.

An area of rain has pushed into far Southern Illinois this evening. This activity will push across the rest of Southern Illinois the next few hours, with some snow/sleet/freezing rain mixing becoming more common with northward extent across Southern Illinois. However, this mixed precip threat will only last a short time tonight, as "warmer" temperatures at the surface and aloft move in, changing all precip to rain across Southern Illinois with time early tonight. Rain will then continue in light and scattered fashion through Wednesday morning and afternoon.

​Precip will push into Central Illinois tonight, with a couple hour period of mixed snow/sleet/freezing rain likely across this area as well. Like farther south, "warmer" temps at the surface will move in, changing the mixed precip over to rain Wednesday morning...with rain showers persisting into the afternoon.

Across Northern Illinois, an isolated snow shower is possible closer to the Illinois/Iowa border area early tonight. However, the main area of snow will move in later tonight and early Wednesday morning. A period of snow is likely, before precip transitions to freezing rain for a several hour period from Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Precip will likely turn to plain rain showers for a time Wednesday afternoon, before colder air pushes in once again, turning things over to a few snow showers.

Widespread snowfall totals over a dusting to 2" is likely across much of the state, with slightly higher totals possible near the Illinois/Iowa border and into portions of far Eastern Illinois. Additionally, ice accumulations across a large portion of the state will be a glaze to 0.10" or so, with isolated higher amounts possible.

Below is our updated TAM snow and ice forecasts for this event.

JP

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