(3:45PM - 2/5/19) Afternoon update regarding the ice event that has started to affect portions of the state today...
An area of mixed freezing rain, sleet and snow has pushed into portions of Western and Northwest Illinois this afternoon. This activity will continue to spread across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois into the evening, continuing overnight, before ending from west to east by Wednesday morning. Most of the precipitation will be freezing rain across Western and Northern Illinois. However, some sleet and snow will be possible at times in heavier precip and across Northwest Illinois, where the "warm" wedge aloft is more narrow. Additionally, warming temps across Central Illinois up into portions of the Chicago metro will change freezing rain over to plain rain overnight, before the precip ends. A few thunderstorms will be possible across Northern and Central Illinois as well during this event.
This set-up is is very dependent on air temps and wet bulb temps...So any slight change to a few degrees warmer or cooler could lead to more or less ice for any given area. The highest confidence forecast is across Western, Northwest and North-Central Illinois...With the lowest confidence being in Northeast Illinois, including the Chicago area.
Below is our latest TAM ice accumulation forecast. Some changes have been made to take into account observations and temperature trends.
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