(9:00PM - 11/25/19) The same storm system that will bring high winds to the state on Tuesday and Wednesday, will also bring a low end threat for strong and severe t'storms to the state.
A broken line of showers and t'storms is expected to develop along a cold front, across portions of Iowa and Missouri, late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this activity an environment will be in place featuring 50-60 degree dew points and <1,000 J/KG CAPE. On the other end of the spectrum, shear will be on the high end of the scale. In other words, this is a low moisture/instability and high shear setup. As the broken line of showers and t'storms races northeastward across the state Tuesday night, isolated strong to severe t'storms will be possible. By no means does this look like a significant or widespread severe weather event. However, given the time of year and holiday travel will be underway for some, it is noteworthy. Damaging/high winds will be the greatest threat with this activity. High winds are already expected outside of showers and t'storms, but this activity could enhance the wind potential. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given there will be some instability in place, coupled with the strong shear.
Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this event.
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