(8:00PM - 11/26/19) The same storm system that will bring high winds to the state tonight and Wednesday, will also bring a low end threat for strong and severe t'storms to the state tonight into early Wednesday morning.
As expected, broken lines of showers and t'storms have developed along and ahead of a cold front across Missouri this evening. This activity is expected to rapidly push northeastward, and will affect the state overnight. This activity will likely sweep northeastward across the state between an 11PM-4AM time-frame. An environment will be in place featuring 45-60 degree dew points and <1,000 J/KG CAPE. On the other end of the spectrum, shear will be on the high end of the scale. In other words, this is a low moisture/instability and high shear setup. By no means does this look like a significant or widespread severe weather event. However, given the time of year and holiday travel will be underway for some, it is noteworthy. There is a very low end threat for severe t'storms across the state during this period, with damaging/high winds being the greatest threat with this activity. High winds are already expected outside of showers and t'storms, but this activity could bring enhanced wind potential. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given there will be some instability in place, coupled with the strong shear.
Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this event.
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