Wed, April 13th Severe T'Storm Event Update #2

(9:30PM Tuesday - 4/12/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm risk to the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Summary...
With this update little to no changes were needed, as the going forecast is on track based on the current information available.

A storm system tracking through the Central Plains today will move through the Midwest on Wednesday, and then into Canada on Thursday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to the state and portions of the region, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Forecast...
​Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Evening, April 13th ~ Severe T'Storm Event:
​A complex scenario is expected on Wednesday, with the main threat for an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk will exist across the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front, a left over broken line of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms from Tuesday night will be ongoing across portions of Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwest/Western Illinois and Missouri early Wednesday morning. This activity is expected push eastward through the morning across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. As anther disturbance pushes northeastward through the region, some regeneration and new development of showers and t'storms expected along the cold front from mid Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon, across portions of West-Central/Southwest Illinois and Missouri. This activity will then sweep northeastward across the state, from midday Wednesday through Wednesday evening. The environment expected to be in place ahead of this activity as it pushes across the state, will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat across portions of the state. The environment that will be in place will feature low to moderate instability of 500-3,000J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.5-9.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk across the state. All modes of severe weather will be possible, which includes; large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

One thing to watch as it pertains to the extent and quality for severe weather risk, is the possibility for widespread cloud/shower/t'storm activity throughout the day across the state and region. This could limit the severe t'storm potential a bit if the effects are too overpowering.

​Impacts...
​-An isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk is in place across the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

JP