Wed, April 13th Severe T'Storm Event Update #3

(10:30AM Wednesday - 4/13/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm risk to the state, this morning through this evening.

Summary...
With this update we have adjusted the level 2 and 3 severe t'storms risks southward a bit across the state. This change was made based on real time observations, supporting the best severe t'storm risk to be a bit further south than previously expected.

A storm system tracked through the Central Plains on Tuesday, and will be moving through the Midwest today, and then into Canada on Thursday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to the state and portions of the region, this morning through this evening.

Forecast...
​This Morning - This Evening, April 13th ~ Severe T'Storm Event:
​A complex scenario is expected today, with the main threat for an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk will exist across the state this morning through this evening. Several pockets of scattered showers and t'storms have been moving across the state this morning. Some of this activity is remnants of a line of showers and t'storms that moved across Iowa and Missouri Tuesday night, with other activity associated with a disturbance moving through the Ohio Valley.

As anther disturbance pushes northeastward through the region, regeneration and development of new showers and t'storms has occurred this morning across portions of Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas.  This activity is in the process of developing into a broken squall line (QLCS), with is expected to then push northeastward, sweeping across Central and Southern Illinois this afternoon and evening. The environment expected to be in place ahead of this activity as it pushes across the state, will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat across portions of the state. The environment that will be in place will feature low to moderate instability of 500-2,500J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.0-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk across the state. All modes of severe weather will be possible, which includes; large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

​Impacts...
​-An isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk is in place across the state, this morning through this evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

JP