Wed, April 7th Severe T'Storm Risk Update #2

(9:00PM - 4/6/21) A storm system will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois, Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

Summary...
A storm system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding all aspects of this potential at this time...Including timing, placement and significance. As was been the case with the previous update, little to no change was needed with this update as well.

​Forecast...
A marginal environment is expected to develop across a large potion of the state on Wednesday, favoring Western and Southwest Illinois. This marginal environment will feature low instability, modest moisture, and decent shear and forcing. As a cold front pushes across Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, scattered showers and t'storms will develop. This activity will then push northeastward across much of the state, Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Given the aforementioned marginal environment in place, a low end severe t'storm risk will be possible across Western and Southwest Illinois, where an isolated severe t'storm will be possible Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will all be threats with any severe t'storm.

Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP