Wed, April 7th Severe T'Storm Risk Update #3

(11:45AM - 4/7/21) A storm system moving through the region today through Thursday will bring an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois, this afternoon through tonight.

Summary...
A storm system moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes today and Thursday will bring an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois, this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement, with real time observations supportive, regarding all aspects of this potential at this time...Including timing, placement and significance. With this update this update the level 1 (Minimal) severe t'storm risk was pulled a bit deeper into Central and Southern Illinois, but no significant changes were needed.

​Forecast...
Areas of showers and t'storms have been ongoing this morning across Iowa, Missouri, Western and Northwest Illinois. In the wake of this activity, a marginal environment is expected to develop across a large potion of the state on Wednesday, favoring Western and Southwest Illinois...as well as across portions of Iowa and much of Missouri. This marginal environment will feature low instability, modest moisture, and decent shear and forcing. As a cold front pushes across Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon, additional scattered showers and t'storms will develop. This activity will then push northeastward across much of the state, this afternoon through Thursday morning. Given the aforementioned marginal environment in place, a low end severe t'storm risk is expected across Western and Southwest Illinois, where an isolated severe t'storm will is expected, this afternoon through tonight. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will all be threats with any severe t'storm.

Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP