Wed-Fri, July 14-16th Severe T'Storm Episode Update #5

(11:45AM - 7/15/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Friday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Friday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances ejecting out of the Plains, will push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through Friday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Friday night. With this update portions of Central Illinois have been upgraded to a level 2 severe t'storm risk for today/tonight, while little to no change was needed for the going forecast for Friday/Friday night.

​Forecast...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, July 15th...
Areas of showers and isolated t'storms have been ongoing across portions of Northern Illinois this morning. Regeneration and new development of rain and t'storms is expected to occur this afternoon across portions of Iowa, Missouri and Central Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of the state, this afternoon through tonight. An environment will be in place that will be supportive of severe t'storms with this activity across Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Friday Morning - Friday Night, July 16th...
Areas of showers and t'storms will be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Friday morning. As another disturbance moves through, regeneration and new development of rain and t'storms is expected to occur Friday afternoon across portions of Missouri and Southern Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Friday afternoon through Friday night. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and  poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

​Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​​Recap...
Wednesday Afternoon - Wednesday Night, July 14th...
An initial complex of rain and t'storms moved across portions of Northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon. Isolated t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail. Another complex of rain and t'storms moved across Northern Illinois Wednesday night. Once again, isolated to widely scattered t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail.

JP