Wed-Fri, July 14-16th Severe T'Storm Episode Update #6

(9:45PM - 7/15/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Friday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Friday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances ejecting out of the Plains, will push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through Friday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Friday night. With this update little to no change was needed for the going forecast for Friday/Friday night.

Forecast...
Tonight, July 15th...
Several areas of rain and t'storms have moved across much of the state today. A few isolated to widely scattered t'storms were severe in Central Illinois this afternoon, producing damaging winds and hail. Additional areas of rain and t'storms will continue to affect portions of the state tonight, especially Central and Southern Illinois. A marginal severe t'storm environment continues to be in place across Southern Illinois. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across Southern Illinois for tonight. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Friday Morning - Friday Night, July 16th...
Areas of showers and t'storms will be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Friday morning. As another disturbance moves through, regeneration and new development of rain and t'storms is expected to occur Friday afternoon across portions of Missouri and Southern Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Friday afternoon through Friday night. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and  poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

​Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​Recap...
Wednesday Afternoon - Wednesday Night, July 14th...
An initial complex of rain and t'storms moved across portions of Northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon. Isolated t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail. Another complex of rain and t'storms moved across Northern Illinois Wednesday night. Once again, isolated to widely scattered t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail.

JP