Wed-Fri, July 14-16th Severe T'Storm Episode Update #7

(10:15AM - 7/16/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through tonight, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through tonight.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances ejecting out of the Plains, will push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through tonight. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through tonight. With this update little to no change was needed for the going forecast for today/tonight.

Forecast...
This - Tonight, July 16th...
Areas of showers and t'storms have been ongoing this morning across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. As another disturbance moves through, regeneration and new development of rain and t'storms is expected to occur this afternoon across Southern Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, this afternoon through early tonight. An environment will be in place that will be supportive of some severe t'storm potential with this activity across portions of  Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and  poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

​Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

​Recap...
Wednesday Afternoon - Wednesday Night, July 14th...
An initial complex of rain and t'storms moved across portions of Northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon. Isolated t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail. Another complex of rain and t'storms moved across Northern Illinois Wednesday night. Once again, isolated to widely scattered t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail.

Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, July 15th...
Several areas of rain and t'storms pushed across a large portion of the state, Thursday morning through Thursday night. A few isolated to widely scattered t'storms were severe in Central Illinois Thursday afternoon, producing damaging winds and hail. 

JP