Wed, July 15th Severe T'Storm Threat Update #1

(9:45PM - 7/13/20) A disturbance is expected to move through the region on Wednesday, bringing the threat for severe t'storm to portions of the state.

Summary...
A disturbance is expected to move through the region, Wednesday into Wednesday night. As mentioned in our original post and as is still the case...Two potential scenarios in play for Wednesday. The first scenario would lead to a very low severe t'storm threat across a large portion of the state, and the second scenario would lead to a much higher severe t'storm threat across a good portion of the state. For now we continue to take the middle ground approach, with a limited severe t'storm risk in place across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado will be the threats. The forecast will be adjusted in future updates, as more information becomes available. Both potential scenarios will be broken down below.

​Scenario #1...
A broken line of weakening showers and t'storms from Tuesday night across Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri moves into Northern and Western Illinois late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Some of this activity festers, while other portions weaken. This leads to widespread precipitation and cloud debris through the day across Northern and Central Illinois, leading to a more marginal environment in place. Additional new scattered showers and t'storms develop across Missouri, Iowa Northwest and Western Illinois during the afternoon, with this new activity and early day activity pushing east-northeast across the state during Wednesday afternoon and evening. In this scenario the severe t'storm threat would be lower, with potentially a minimal risk across a large portion of the state.

Scenario #2...
A broken line of weakening showers and t'storms from Tuesday night across Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri diminishes as it approaches and enters Northwest and Western Illinois late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Ample clearing and destabilization occurs through the day, leading to a favorable environment in place. New scattered showers and t'storms develop across Missouri, Iowa Northwest and Western Illinois during the afternoon, pushing east-northeast across the state during Wednesday afternoon and evening. In this scenario the severe t'storm threat would be higher, with potentially an elevated severe t'storm risk across portions of the state.

As mentioned in the initial summary, we continue to take the middle ground approach between both scenarios, with a limited severe t'storm risk in place across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado will be the threats. The forecast will be adjusted in future updates, as more information becomes available.

Below is the severe t'storm forecast for Wednesday morning - Wednesday night.

JP

To receive updates from us via the in-telligent app, text ISC to 833-369-3800 ​