Wed-Thur, April 17-18th Severe Weather Event Update #3

(8:00PM - 4/17/19) Update on the severe weather threat across the state tonight into tomorrow morning...

Tonight:
A disturbance moving across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon and evening promoted scattered shower and t'storm development across these areas. This activity is beginning to push into Northern Illinois this evening, and will continue into tonight, before diminishing. An environment in place featuring low instability, meager moisture and decent shear will help support a low end severe threat across the aforementioned area during this period.

Further south, a complex of rain and t'storms has developed across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri this afternoon and evening. This activity will likely push into portions of Western and Southwest Illinois tonight, spreading across portions of Central and Southern Illinois into late night and early Thursday morning. A similar environment will be in place as is further north; low instability, meager moisture and decent shear...which will help support a low end severe threat. This activity will likely have the best severe potential during this two day period, though still lower end. 

Thursday morning:
The complex of rain and t'storms mentioned above that will push across much of Central and Southern Illinois tonight will be ongoing Thursday morning across much of Eastern and Southern Illinois. A low end severe threat will likely still be possible with this activity. The main change from previous forecast updates is that additional periods of rain and t'storms after Thursday morning no longer appear as though they will carry any severe threat.

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Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecasts for each day. The main threats with any severe t'storms will be hail and wind, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

JP

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