Wed-Thur, Feb 5-6th Snowstorm Update #2

(7:00AM - 2/4/20) In the wake of two lead waves moving through the region, a main storm system is expected to move through the region, Wednesday into Thursday. Accumulating snow will be likely across a large portion of the state during this time.

​Synopsis...
For the past several days, model guidance has been showing wintry potential for this week. However, guidance has also been in a high amount of disagreement. From showing a big storm system, to multiple smaller waves, things have been all over the board. As time has gone on, guidance has honed in on two lead waves that are expected to move through the region, through Wednesday...followed by a main storm system to move through the region Wednesday and Thursday. We have decided to split this period up, focusing on the two lead waves in a separate post, and the main storm system in this post...due the the higher potential with it.

There is still some disagreement among model guidance regarding where the main snowfall axis sets up and with snowfall amounts, so future changes are possible in later updates.

Wednesday afternoon-Thursday afternoon...
​The main storm system in this sequence will move through the region, Wednesday into Thursday. Snow is expected to spread into Southwest Illinois by midday Wednesday. This activity will then spread across much of the state Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, before ending from southwest to northeast across the state later Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Across much of the state precipitation will fall as snow, with the exception being across Southern and Eastern Illinois, where a mix of rain/ice/sleet/snow will be possible. Upwards of 2-5" of snow will be likely within the main snowfall axis across the state, with tapering amounts on either side of this main axis. Locally higher amounts in excess of 5” are possible within the main axis.

It should be noted that across Northeast Illinois, conditions will be favorable for lake enhanced and lake effect snow. This will likely keep snow going into Thursday evening across this area, while also adding to snowfall totals.

Final snowfall totals of 2-5" are expected in an axis across the state, with tapering amounts on either side of this axis.

​Below is the TAM snowfall forecast for this event.

​JP

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