(9:30PM - 2/6/19) An update regarding the severe weather event for Southern Illinois tonight into Thursday morning.
Scattered to numerous areas of rain and thunderstorms are currently developing across Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri. This activity will push into Central and Southern Illinois tonight, continuing into late morning or early afternoon Thursday. Overnight tonight and into early Thursday morning, this activity will be elevated and along or north of the warm front. This environment will feature low instability, high shear and a great flow aloft. This will lead to some severe potential, with hail and damaging winds being the main threats. During Thursday morning into early afternoon, the warm front will push north, allowing warmer temperatures and higher dew points into the 60's to push into portions of Southern Illinois, ahead of the cold front. The environment will once again feature instability on the low side, but good shear and a strong upper level flow will compensate a bit. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats...though and isolated tornado can't be ruled out, given a marginally favorable wind profile, which shows with a slightly curved hodograph.
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