Wed-Thurs, July 14-15th Severe T'Storm Episode Update #3

(11:00AM - 7/14/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region today through Thursday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state this afternoon through Thursday night.

Summary...
Multiple disturbances ejecting out of the Plains, will push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley today through Thursday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this afternoon through Thursday night. Little to no change was needed with this update, as going forecasts are on track.

Forecast...
This Afternoon - Tonight, July 14th...
As expected, a lead wave and associated complex of rain and t'storms that originated in the Plains last night has moved into Minnesota and Iowa this morning. A few t'storms have been severe with this complex. Some regeneration of activity may occur with this complex, as it affects portions of Wisconsin and Northern Illinois this afternoon. In the wake of this first complex, additional new development of areas of rain and t'storms associated with the main wave is expected across Southern Minnesota and Iowa this afternoon. This activity, in the form of a few clusters, is then expected to push eastward and across portions of Iowa, Wisconsin and Northern Illinois, this evening through tonight. An environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will exist today into tonight across Northern Illinois. The environment will feature moderate instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and  modest lapse rates of 5.0-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across Northern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, July 15th...
Areas of showers and t'storms will likely be ongoing across portions Northern and Central Illinois Thursday morning. Regeneration and new development is then expected to occur during Thursday afternoon across portions of Iowa, Missouri and Northern/Central Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and  poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across Northern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

​Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.

JP